St. Mirren vs Livingston - AI Prediction & Analysis

St. Mirren sit 10th with 30 points, 14 clear of bottom-placed Livingston but only 8 above the relegation playoff spot. With five games left, they aren't safe yet, and a win here would all but secure their top-flight status. Livingston are in a desperate fight for survival – they've won just once all season and are 7 points adrift of safety. The visitors simply cannot afford to lose. However, their away form is atrocious: 0 wins on the road all season. St. Mirren have the comfort of home and a solid defensive record at the SMISA Stadium. The motivation gap is real – Livingston's urgency might lead to recklessness, but their poor away record suggests they'll struggle to break down a stubborn home side. Expect a tense, tactical battle with both teams cautious.

St. Mirren have been inconsistent but have shown resilience at home. In their last four home matches, they've kept clean sheets in three, including a 2-0 win over Aberdeen and a 1-0 victory over Hearts. However, they also suffered heavy defeats against Rangers (0-1) and Motherwell (0-5) – though the latter was with 10 men. Overall at home, they've averaged just 0.67 goals per game but conceded only 0.5. Their xG at home is 1.16, suggesting some underperformance, but the defensive solidity is real. Livingston's away form is dire: 0 wins, 10 losses, and 8 draws from 18 away matches. They've scored just 15 away goals all season and conceded 34. In their last four away markers, they averaged 1.7 goals scored but also 2.5 conceded. Their xG away is 0.97, but they've been slightly unlucky not to score more. However, they've failed to score in 7 of their 18 away games. The pattern is clear: St. Mirren are tough to beat at home, and Livingston rarely win on the road.

Both teams have full squads available with no key absentees. St. Mirren manager Craig McLeish has a full complement of 18 senior players and 20 rotation options. Livingston's Marvin Bartley also has his entire squad fit: 17 key players and 25 rotation options. There's no rotation risk given the importance of the match for both sides. The lack of injuries means both teams will field their strongest possible XIs, but neither side possesses significant depth. The lineups are expected to be unchanged from recent outings.

This is a clash of two defensive-minded teams. St. Mirren at home average 52.9% possession and rely on set pieces – they win 7.67 corners per game. Livingston away play a low-block, averaging 43.8% possession and winning just 3.18 corners. Both teams prioritise defensive shape, so the match is unlikely to be open. St. Mirren's corner-heavy style could be the main source of threat, as Livingston are vulnerable to crosses. However, Livingston also defend deep, which can frustrate St. Mirren. The match is likely to be decided by set pieces or a single moment of quality. Goals look scarce.

St. Mirren at home against similar defensive teams have been a goldmine for under bettors. Against Aberdeen (2-0), they created 3 big chances and limited opponents to 0.53 xG. Against Dundee FC (0-0), despite 2 big chances, they couldn't score. Against Kilmarnock (0-0), they had 1.36 xG but no goals. And against Livingston earlier this season (1-0), they dominated with 2.10 xG and 5 big chances. The pattern is clear: St. Mirren keep clean sheets but struggle to score many – 3 goals in 4 marker matches (0.75 per game). Total corners averaged 12.5, with all matches over 11. Livingston away markers show a different picture: they lost 2-0 to Kilmarnock (1.71 xG against, 0.79 for), drew 2-2 with Dundee FC (1.29 xG for, 0.91 against), lost 6-2 to Aberdeen (1.74 xG for, 3.08 against), and lost 1-0 to St. Mirren (0.24 xG for). Two of these matches went over 2.5 goals, but the defeats to Kilmarnock and St. Mirren were low-scoring. The common thread is that Livingston struggle to keep clean sheets away – only 1 clean sheet in 18 away games. However, they can score against weaker defences. Overall, the overlap suggests a low-scoring match with St. Mirren dominating possession and corners.

These sides have met four times this season. St. Mirren won 1-0 at home in December (xG 2.10-0.24, corners 7-4). The three away matches for St. Mirren produced two 1-1 draws and a wild 5-4 win for St. Mirren in January – a game likely an outlier with 9 goals. The other two draws were tight: February's 1-1 had xG 0.97-0.69, and January's 1-1 had xG 1.41-1.32. In three of the four meetings, total goals were under 2.5. St. Mirren have dominated xG in all matches except the 1-1 draw where Livingston had 1.32. The consistency of low scoring (excluding the 5-4 freak) is notable. Both coaches remain the same, so tactical continuity is high.

First-half patterns: St. Mirren's home markers average 0.67 goals in the first half, while Livingston's away markers average 2.00 goals – but that's inflated by the 2-2 and 2-3 scorelines. In St. Mirren's home markers, 1H corners average 6.11 (home 4.28, away 1.83), suggesting early dominance from the hosts. Yellow cards in St. Mirren home markers average 2.11 in 1H, while Livingston away average only 0.57 – but the league average is 4.0 per game. Total cards in St. Mirren home markers are low (avg 2.34), while Livingston away average 2.38. Fouls are consistent around 21.5 per match. The match is unlikely to see many cards unless the referee is card-happy. Given the defensive styles, a low-tempo first half is expected, with St. Mirren dominating corners.

The market has moved significantly towards Over 2.5, with odds shortening from 2.00 to 1.80, while Under 2.5 has drifted from 1.80 to 2.00. This suggests sharp money on goals, but the data contradicts this. St. Mirren's home markers saw under 2.5 in 4/4 matches; Livingston away markers saw under in 2/4; H2H saw under in 3/4. My estimate: Under 2.5 has a 70% probability, giving fair odds of 1.43. The bookmaker offers 2.00 – significant value. BTTS No also has value: St. Mirren's home markers had BTTS No in 4/4; Livingston away had BTTS No in 2/4; H2H had BTTS No in 1/4 (the 1-0 win). My estimate: 65% chance, fair odds 1.54, bookmaker offers 1.95. For corners, over 10.5 corners at 2.00 is attractive: St. Mirren home markers all had 11+ corners; Livingston away markers had 2/4 over 10.5. My estimate: 60% chance, fair odds 1.67, value. The combo of Under 2.5 and BTTS No at combined odds of 3.90 is incredibly attractive given the high correlation – in 6 of 8 markers where Under 2.5 hit, BTTS No also hit. Estimate: 60% probability, fair odds 1.67, strong value.