TSG Hoffenheim vs SV Werder Bremen - AI Prediction & Analysis

Hoffenheim sit 6th on 58 points, chasing a European spot with three games left. Every point matters, especially at home where they've been strong. Bremen are 15th on 32 points, just two clear of the relegation playoff. They've lost three of their last four and face Dortmund away next week – this is a must-not-lose. But Hoffenheim have everything to play for: a win here could leapfrog them past Stuttgart into 5th. The motivation edge is clearly with the hosts, but Bremen's survival fight keeps them desperate. Both sides need points, but Hoffenheim's urgency to attack and Bremen's defensive frailty set the stage for an open game.

Hoffenheim have been inconsistent: three wins, two draws, two losses in their last seven. At home, they've won three of six but drew 1-1 with Wolfsburg and lost 0-1 to St. Pauli despite massive xG (2.80 in that loss). Their home xG average is 1.93, but they've overperformed (2.3 goals per game) – regression risk is moderate. Bremen's away form is poor: one win in six, with a 1-1 draw at Stuttgart the only bright spot. They conceded an average of 1.39 xG away, but their defensive record is skewed by two red cards in three marker matches. Still, they've scored in five of six away games – they can find the net even when losing.

Both teams are hit by injuries. Hoffenheim are without key midfielders Samassékou and Becker, and defender Machida is doubtful. That disrupts their build-up play, but Kramarić and Lemperle remain dangerous. Bremen miss four key players: defenders Agu and Veljković, forward Njinmah, and midfielder Weiser. Without those defensive pillars, their low block becomes leakier – especially against a possession-heavy side like Hoffenheim. The absences tilt the balance further toward the hosts.

This is a classic possession vs. low block. Hoffenheim average 64% possession at home, while Bremen sit deep with 41% away. Hoffenheim create plenty of chances (3.33 big chances per home marker) but are wasteful – they scored only 1.7 goals per game despite 1.89 xG. Bremen defend narrowly and rely on counter-attacks, but their away marker xG is just 0.88. However, both teams are corner-heavy: Hoffenheim average 9.28 corners for, Bremen concede 10.38 away. Total corners should be high. The match should see Hoffenheim dominate territory and shots, but Bremen's set-piece threat and counter-attack could produce goals at both ends.

Hoffenheim's home markers show clear dominance but inefficiency. Against Wolfsburg (1-1), they had 1.78 xG, 21 shots, 16 corners but only one goal – a typical story of overplaying against a deep defense. Against St. Pauli (0-1 loss), they created 2.80 xG and 5 big chances but couldn't score – a massive underperformance. Against Union Berlin (3-1 win), they needed a penalty to break the deadlock and conceded 1.84 xG. Against Hamburger SV (4-1 win), they scored four but allowed 1.38 xG. The pattern: Hoffenheim generate high xG and corners but are vulnerable on the break and inefficient in front of goal. Bremen's away markers: at Stuttgart (1-1), they created 1.00 xG but conceded 1.78; at Freiburg (0-1 loss), they had a red card after 52 minutes but still created 0.97 xG; at Augsburg (0-0), they had 0.60 xG and 11 corners despite 20 fouls. The pattern: Bremen defend deep, concede corners, and rely on discipline. Without key defenders, that discipline may crack. The overlap: Hoffenheim will dominate xG and corners, but Bremen can score on counters or set pieces.

Hoffenheim have won all three recent H2H meetings. In January 2026, they won 2-0 away despite Bremen having a red card; Hoffenheim had just 0.61 xG but scored twice – clinical. In two pre-season friendlies in August 2025, the hosts won 3-0 and 1-0. The pattern is clear: Hoffenheim control these games and find a way to win, even when not dominating xG. Bremen struggle to create against them. With both coaches still in place, that tactical edge likely continues.

Small markets: xG total averages – Hoffenheim home 2.84, Bremen away 2.27, combined ~2.6. Corners – Hoffenheim home 9.28 for, Bremen away 10.38 against, total corners ~14.5. Yellow cards – Hoffenheim home 3.39, Bremen away 2.74, but referee Storks averages 4.16. First-half patterns: Hoffenheim lead 1.11-0.28 at home in 1H goals; Bremen allow 0.13-1.00 away. That suggests Hoffenheim often start fast. 1H corners total 7.39 (home) vs 8.51 (away). Over 3.5 cards at 1.73 looks fair given referee stats.

Odds have moved heavily. Home win shortened from 1.55 to 1.45 – sharp money. Over 2.5 goals dropped from 3.00 to 1.36, indicating strong support for goals. BTTS Yes is 1.50, which implies 66.7% probability. Given both teams' scoring streaks, I estimate 70% chance – slight value. Under 2.5 at 3.20 has drifted, but with Hoffenheim's home scoring and Bremen's away record, under is unlikely. Corner over 10.5 at 2.00 has drifted from 1.73 – value if you believe in corner totals above 10.5. My fair odds for Over 2.5: 1.40 (71% probability), bookie 1.36 – no value. BTTS Yes fair odds 1.43 (70%), bookie 1.50 – small value. Corner over 10.5 fair odds 1.85 (54%), bookie 2.00 – value.