VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen - AI Prediction & Analysis

Champions League football is on the line. Both teams are locked on 58 points, with Leverkusen edging fourth on goal difference. Stuttgart know a win would leapfrog them into the top four with two games to play – a direct clash for the premium spot. The hosts also have a DFB Pokal final against Bayern looming, but that's after the season; league focus is absolute. Leverkusen have the easier run-in (Hamburg at home next) but dropping points here could be fatal. The intensity will be through the roof – every tackle, every pass carries huge weight. Neither side can afford to sit back; a draw is dangerous for both, especially Stuttgart who need to overtake their rival. Expect a high-tempo, aggressive contest from the first whistle. The table situation alone makes this a 5/5 motivation for both.

Stuttgart's recent form is a mixed bag. They hammered Hamburger SV 4-0 at home (3.64 xG, 5 big chances) but then lost 0-2 to Dortmund despite dominating possession (67%). That Dortmund match is a red flag: they created only 0.76 xG and struggled to break down a compact defense. The 4-2 loss at Bayern was actually a statistical anomaly – they conceded 4.33 xG and 8 big chances, showing defensive fragility. At home, their xG averages 2.12 but they've underperformed slightly (scored 1.8 goals per game). Leverkusen are in blistering attacking form. Their last three matches: 4-1 vs Leipzig (4.38 xG, 11 big chances), 2-1 win at Köln (3.04 xG), and a 6-3 thrashing of Wolfsburg (4.52 xG). Even in losses, they create – against Augsburg they had 3.36 xG but lost 1-2. Away from home, their xG average is 1.3 but they've overperformed (1.6 goals per game). Crucially, they score early: 1.67 first-half goals away in markers. Both teams are in goal-laden form, setting the stage for a high-scoring affair.

Stuttgart have a defensive crisis. Twelve players are unavailable, including key defenders Al-Dakhil, Chase, Karazor, and Jeltsch – all injured. That means an untested back four of Vagnoman, Chabot, Jaquez, and Hendriks. The absence of Karazor in midfield also removes a key shield. This patchwork defense will be tested by Leverkusen's fluid attack. Leverkusen are not without absences either: key midfielder Lucas Vázquez and forward Martin Terrier are out. But they have depth – Andrich, Palacios, García in midfield, and Schick up front. The visitors can absorb these losses better than Stuttgart can their defensive absentees. This imbalance heavily favors Leverkusen's attack.

Both teams love possession – Stuttgart average 59.6% at home, Leverkusen 59.4% away. But possession doesn't equate to control here. Stuttgart's high line and pressing will leave spaces for Leverkusen's quick transition, especially with Schick's movement. Leverkusen also press aggressively but can be caught out by Stuttgart's direct runs from Leweling and Führich. The match is billed as a tactical battle, but the defensive injuries for Stuttgart suggest it will be open. Both sides create high numbers of big chances (Stuttgart 2.67 markers home, Leverkusen 2.63 markers away). Corners are also likely: Stuttgart average 5.27 corners at home, Leverkusen 4.57 corners away – totals often exceed 9.5. Expect an end-to-end game with multiple scoring opportunities.

Stuttgart's home markers against similar opponents (top/mid teams) show a clear pattern: they dominate possession but are vulnerable on the counter and set pieces. Against Dortmund (0-2) they had 67% possession but only 0.76 xG and lost. Against Leipzig (1-0) they were efficient but Leipzig had 2 big chances. Against Porto (1-2) they had 60% possession but Porto created 0.94 xG and won. Against Celtic (0-1) they had 2.13 xG but failed to score – a 24-shot blank. Against Bayern (0-5) they were dismantled. The defensive injuries only exacerbate this fragility. Leverkusen's away markers: at Freiburg (3-3) – high xG both ways; at Gladbach (1-1) – controlled but not dominant; at Frankfurt (3-1) – capitalized on red card; at Hoffenheim (0-1) – lost despite more possession; at Augsburg (0-2) – lost despite more xG. The pattern: Leverkusen create chances but are inconsistent defensively on the road. The overlap: both teams leak chances, and with Stuttgart's defense weakened, goals should flow. This is a classic 'both teams to score and over 2.5' scenario.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months, and it was spectacular: Stuttgart won 4-1 at Leverkusen in January 2026. The stats show Stuttgart had 2.60 xG (1.84 NPxG) to Leverkusen's 1.96, with 4 big chances and 7 shots on target. Leverkusen had 57% possession and 16 shots but were blown away by a 4-goal first half. Four of the goals came in the first half. Both teams had a penalty. That match is a reminder that these sides can produce goal fests. Coaches and key players are similar, so the pattern is relevant. The H2H also showed corners at 8 total, cards at 6, and fouls at 24 – consistent with marker averages.

First half patterns are explosive: Leverkusen average 1.67 first-half goals away, and Stuttgart concede 0.94 at home – total 2.61. That screams early action. Corners: home markers average 9.5 total, away 7.94 – both near 9.0. 1H corners for Stuttgart are 2.90, Leverkusen 2.37 – modest but consistent. Cards: Stuttgart's home markers average 4.46 yellows, Leverkusen away 5.00 – both above 4.5. Referee Schröder averages 4.16 yellows, just above league average 3.8. Fouls are also high: 21.6 in Stuttgart's markers, 18.8 in Leverkusen's. With such high stakes, card total Over 4.5 at 1.91 looks tempting. Shots on target average 9.33 (Stuttgart home) and 9.93 (Leverkusen away), supporting Over 2.5 goals.

The odds have shifted dramatically: Over 2.5 goals shortened from 3.20 to 1.33 – a massive move reflecting market confidence in goals. BTTS Yes is at 1.33, also short. The margin-removed probabilities: Home Win 43.3%, Draw 23.8%, Away Win 32.9%. My estimate: Stuttgart's defensive injuries tilt the balance. I see Stuttgart win at 30%, draw 25%, Leverkusen win 45%. So Away Win at 2.90 (fair odds 2.22) has value. Over 2.5 at 1.33 has a fair probability around 80% – the market has already priced it in, but given the data it's still likely. Cards Over 4.5 at 1.91 has fair probability around 55% (marker averages support), offering slight value.