Villarreal vs Levante UD - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams have everything to play for. Villarreal sit 3rd with 65 points, firmly in the Champions League race. Every point is vital with tough fixtures ahead: Mallorca away, Sevilla at home, Rayo away, then a potential decider vs Atletico Madrid. They can't afford to drop points at home against a relegation candidate. Levante are 19th with 33 points, deep in the relegation mire. Every match is a cup final now. They've shown fight lately – wins against Sevilla and Getafe – but away form remains terrible. The motivation edge? Both are at maximum. Villarreal need to consolidate top four, Levante need survival points. No rotation risks for either side. Expect full intensity from both.

Villarreal have been solid lately: 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss across last seven. But the results flatter slightly – they've won by single goals in four of those. Their xG numbers are fair, with no major overperformance. At home they've been excellent: five straight wins, but only two clean sheets in 15 at home. The backline is leaky. Levante are in relegation form: only 2 wins in last seven, both at home. Away from home they've been horrendous: four straight losses, scoring just 0.7 goals per game with 0.78 xG. They were battered by Barcelona (0-3), Real Madrid (0-2), and Rayo (1-1 after a red card). The defensive structure is poor on the road.

Villarreal are missing key centre-back Santiago Mouriño and midfielder Tajon Buchanan (doubtful). That weakens their depth but the starting XI remains strong: Gerard Moreno, Mikautadze, Pépé, and Comesaña are all available. The attack is at full strength. Levante have major absences: key defender Adrián de la Fuente, key forward Iván Romero, and midfielder Kareem Tunde (doubtful). That leaves them thin at the back and in attack. Their away record is already poor – missing three important players only makes it worse. The bench is weak.

This is a classic low-block vs. possession clash. Villarreal average 45% possession at home but are labeled 'defensive' – they absorb pressure and hit on the break. Levante average just 27.8% possession away, parking the bus and hoping for set pieces or counters. The clash should see Villarreal dominate the ball with Levante sitting deep. But marker data suggests this doesn't lead to a bore draw: Villarreal home games average 2.88 xG total, while Levante away games average 3.66 xG total. Despite defensive reputations, both teams concede chances. Expect goals, especially from set pieces – both are corner-heavy.

Villarreal's home markers against similar defensive opponents paint a clear picture: 6 matches, all ended with Over 2.5 goals. Against Elche (2-1) xG 1.58-1.22, against Valencia (2-1) xG 2.34-1.53, against Espanyol (4-1) xG 0.77-0.51 (they overperformed massively), against Alaves (3-1) xG 1.50-0.94, against Mallorca (2-1) xG 2.23-1.02, and against Rayo (4-0) xG 3.02-1.02. BTTS landed in 5 of those 6. The pattern is clear: Villarreal score but they also concede – only one clean sheet in those matches, and that against Rayo who had a man sent off. Levante's away markers are limited to 3 matches, all against elite sides (Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico). They conceded 3, 2, and 3 goals respectively. The total xG against averaged 2.89. Even with a low block, they were dismantled by quality. Villarreal are not at that elite level, but they are top-4 quality. The pattern: both teams' markers point to high-scoring affairs when Villarreal host, and Levante leak goals away. The overlap screams Over 2.5.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: Villarreal won 1-0 away in February 2026. That match had xG 2.40-0.92 and 5-0 big chances in favor of Villarreal – they dominated but couldn't finish. The 1-0 was a fair reflection of a one-sided game. Both coaches were the same for that match, though each team has 3-5 squad changes since then. That result is a slight outlier against the marker data, but it's only one match. The overall H2H record (10 matches) favors Villarreal (6W, 1D, 3L).

Small market data heavily favors goals. Villarreal home markers: average total xG 2.88, corners 8.85, yellow cards 4.00. Levante away markers: average total xG 3.66, corners 16.67, yellow cards 3.22. The corner disparity is huge – Levante gave up 13+ corners per game against top sides. Villarreal are not as dominant but should still win the corner battle. 1H patterns: Villarreal average 1.81 total goals in first halves at home, Levante average 2.11 total goals in first halves away. Early goals are common. Over 1.5 1H goals is a promising small market. Yellow cards: Villarreal home average 4.0, Levante away average 3.22. The league baseline is 4.7, so this match might be lower than average. Under 4.5 yellow cards at 1.83 looks interesting.

Odds have shifted significantly. Home win drifted from 1.55 to 1.70, while Over 2.5 goals shortened from 2.38 to 1.57. The market is expecting goals but not trusting Villarreal to win comfortably. The margin-removed probabilities: Home win 56%, Draw 22%, Away win 22%. My estimate: Home win 60% (fair odds 1.67, slight negative value at 1.70), Over 2.5 probability 80% (fair odds 1.25, huge value at 1.57). The marker data supports Over 2.5 in 9/9 relevant matches – that's a 100% hit rate, though sample is small. I estimate 75% true probability, which still gives positive EV at 1.57. BTTS at 1.61 is closer to my estimate of 65% (fair 1.54), so marginal.