West Ham United vs Arsenal - AI Prediction & Analysis

West Ham are fighting for survival, sitting 18th with 36 points, just one point from safety with three games left. Every point is critical. They face the league leaders Arsenal, who need a win to keep their title hopes alive - they lead by a slim margin with tough fixtures ahead. Arsenal also have a Champions League semi-final second leg against PSG on May 30, but that's three weeks away, so no immediate rotation risk. However, West Ham's desperation could lead to a disciplined defensive display, while Arsenal might prioritize control over risk. The motivational edge is slightly with West Ham - they are at home, fighting for their lives, and a point would be a massive result. Arsenal cannot afford a slip, but their quality should prevail. Expect a tense, tactical battle where both sides are wary of conceding first.

West Ham come off a 3-0 thrashing at Brentford, but before that they beat Everton 2-1 and Wolves 4-0 at home. However, those wins overperformed xG (1.17 vs Everton, 1.68 vs Wolves) and were against weaker opposition. At home against top sides, they've been less convincing: 1-1 vs Man City (0.54 xG, lucky point), 1-1 vs Man United (1.11 xG), and 0-2 vs Liverpool (0.29 xG). Their overall xG divergence is moderate overperformance, but at home it's more pronounced (avg xG 1.53 vs avg goals 2.1). That suggests regression - they can't keep converting at that rate. Arsenal's form is solid: 3-0 vs Fulham, 1-0 vs Newcastle, and a dominant 4-1 at Tottenham. Their away xG is 1.97 per game, but they've underperformed overall due to unlucky results like 0-0 at Forest (2.10 xG). The underlying numbers say Arsenal create plenty, and their inability to convert away from home is likely to correct soon. West Ham's defense is leaky - they've allowed 2+ xG in 3 of 4 home markers - so Arsenal should create chances.

West Ham are missing key players. Defender Jean-Clair Todibo and midfielder Mohammed Kudus are both doubtful with injuries. Todibo's absence weakens their already shaky backline, while Kudus is a creative spark in midfield. Without him, they struggle to transition quickly. Niclas Füllkrug is also out, but he's a rotation option. Arsenal are without key defender Jurriën Timber and midfielder Mikel Merino - both starters. Timber's injury forces a reshuffle, but Saliba and Gabriel are solid. Merino missing means less physical midfield presence, but Rice and Ødegaard provide enough control. Overall, Arsenal's squad depth is superior, and their starting XI remains formidable. West Ham's absences hurt their defensive organization, which is worrying against a team that creates 5 big chances per away match.

This is a classic low-block vs possession team. West Ham, under Nuno, average 35.8% possession at home and rely on counter-attacks and set pieces. They are defensive but have been corner-heavy (avg 4.00 corners for, 6.83 against). Arsenal, with 56.9% possession away, are patient and build-up oriented, but they also generate corners (avg 6.67 for). The clash will likely see Arsenal dominate the ball, with West Ham sitting deep. Key battles: West Ham's tall defenders vs Arsenal's aerial threat (Gyökeres, Saliba from corners). Arsenal's wide players (Saka, Eze) will try to exploit space behind West Ham's full-backs. However, West Ham's compact shape could frustrate Arsenal, as they've kept it tight against top sides (only 2 goals conceded to Man City and Man United combined). The match may be decided by set pieces or individual errors. Expect few open-play chances but possible goals from dead-ball situations.

Let's examine West Ham's home markers against top sides: - vs Man City (Mar 14): 1-1. West Ham had 0.54 xG, 1 shot on target, but scored from a set piece. City had 2.03 xG but only 1 big chance. Corners 1-15. - vs Man United (Feb 10): 1-1. West Ham had 1.11 xG, 3 SoT. United had 0.57 xG. Corners 5-3. Both goals came in the second half. - vs Aston Villa (Dec 14): 2-3 loss. West Ham had 1.03 xG, Villa 0.67 xG. High foul count (31 total). Corners 5-3. Game saw 5 goals. - vs Liverpool (Nov 30): 0-2 loss. West Ham had 0.29 xG, 0 SoT. Liverpool had 1.24 xG, 3 BC. A red card for West Ham in the 84th minute skewed it. Corners 7-2. Pattern: Against elite teams, West Ham average 0.77 xG for and 1.19 against. Total goals: 2,2,5,2 - three out of four under 2.5. Corners average 10.3, but range 8-16. Now Arsenal away markers against similar opposition: - vs Tottenham (Feb 22): 4-1 win. Arsenal had 2.07 xG, 6 BC. Tottenham had 0.76 xG. Corners 5-2. High scoring. - vs Wolves (Feb 18): 2-2 draw. Arsenal 1.60 xG, 3 BC. Wolves 0.29 xG. Corners 3-1. - vs Leeds (Jan 31): 4-0 win. Arsenal 2.19 xG, 6 BC. Leeds 0.15 xG. Corners 12-4. - vs Forest (Jan 17): 0-0 draw. Arsenal 2.10 xG, 4 BC. Forest 0.34 xG. Corners 9-4. Pattern: Arsenal create high xG (avg 1.97) and big chances (avg 4.83). But they've had one goalless draw. Total goals: 5,4,4,0 - three overs, one under. Corners average 10.0, but with high variance. Overlap: West Ham's home markers vs strong sides produced low goals (3 under 2.5), while Arsenal's away markers produced high goals (3 over 2.5). The clash of these patterns suggests a middle ground. Given West Ham's desperation and Arsenal's potential focus on control, a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline seems plausible. The 0-0 at Forest shows Arsenal can be stifled by a resolute defense.

Only one H2H meeting in the last 12 months: on October 4, 2025, Arsenal won 2-0 at home. Stats: West Ham 0.49 xG, Arsenal 2.77 xG (2.01 NPxG). Arsenal had 4 BC to West Ham's 2, 21 shots to 4, 5 SoT to 0. Corners 3-8. The match was one-sided, with Arsenal dominating. Both coaches are the same, so tactical approaches are familiar. That result suggests Arsenal are comfortable against West Ham's setup. However, this is at West Ham's home, where they've been more competitive. The single sample size is small, but it aligns with the gulf in quality.

First-half patterns: West Ham home 1H goals avg 0.89 for, 0.56 against, total 1.45. Arsenal away 1H goals avg 1.22 for, 0.67 against, total 1.89. So 1H totals average around 1.5-1.9 goals, suggesting a potential goal in the first half. 1H corners: West Ham home avg 4.45 total, Arsenal away avg 5.34 total - both moderate. 1H cards: low totals. For full match, small markets like corners: West Ham home total corners avg 10.83, Arsenal away avg 9.17 - both close to line of 10.5. Yellow cards: West Ham home avg 3.06, Arsenal away avg 2.61 - below league average of 4.0. Referee Kavanagh averages 3.67 cards per match, also below league average. So cards may be low. Shots on target total average around 6.39 for West Ham home, 8.38 for Arsenal away - combined 14.77, not exceptionally high.

Bookmakers see Arsenal as heavy favorites: away win at 1.60 (margin-removed 59%). Draw at 4.10 (23%), West Ham win at 5.25 (18%). The market has moved significantly: Over 2.5 goals shortened from 2.20 to 1.67 (now implied 60%), while Under 2.5 drifted to 2.20 (45.5%). This suggests money came for overs. However, my analysis suggests a tighter game. West Ham's home markers against top sides averaged 2.75 goals, Arsenal's away markers averaged 3.25. The H2H had 2 goals. Given West Ham's defensive approach and Arsenal's potential caution with CL ahead, I estimate a 55% chance of Under 2.5, giving fair odds of 1.82. The bookmaker offers 2.20 - clear value. For BTTS, market implies 57.1% Yes, but my estimate is 62.5% (5 of 8 markers had BTTS), so Yes also has slight value. However, I lean toward Under 2.5 as it aligns with West Ham's survival mentality. Cards: Over 3.5 at 1.61 has moved significantly, but referee averages low cards. I estimate 52% chance of Under 3.5, fair odds 1.92 - bookmaker offers 2.20, value on Under 3.5.