Wolverhampton vs Sunderland - AI Prediction & Analysis

Wolverhampton are rock bottom with 17 points from 34 games, 29 points adrift of safety. Mathematically relegated, they have nothing left to play for but pride. Their last three matches were losses without scoring – motivation is at an all-time low. Sunderland sit 12th with 46 points, comfortably mid-table. They are safe from relegation and have no chance of European football. However, Sunderland will want to finish the season strongly and build momentum for next year. Their recent away form is inconsistent but they have shown resilience, beating Newcastle 2-1 in March. With nothing at stake for either side, motivation is a non-factor – both teams will play without pressure, which often leads to more open football but also lapses in concentration. The game could be scrappy.

Wolverhampton are in terrible form: three consecutive losses, all by 1-0 or worse, and failing to score in each. Their xG in those games was low (0.62 vs Spurs, 0.44 vs Liverpool but they scored 2, 0.86 vs Villa). At home, they have scored in only 9 of 15 home games (60%) and kept just 3 clean sheets. Their xG at home averages 0.85 but they overperform slightly (1.1 goals per game). Defensively, they concede 2.02 xG per match at home. Sunderland's form is erratic: a 5-0 home loss to Nottingham Forest, then a 4-3 defeat at Aston Villa, but before that they beat Tottenham 1-0 and Newcastle 2-1 away. Their xG away is 1.27 but they underperform (0.9 actual goals per game). They create chances but lack finishing. Both teams are likely to be leaky at the back.

Wolverhampton are missing key defenders Ladislav Krejčí and Matt Doherty, plus midfielder Mario Lemina is doubtful. Their defense will be weakened, which Sunderland can exploit. Sunderland are without key midfielder Jocelin Ta Bi and attacker Nilson Angulo (doubtful), and Bertrand Traoré is doubtful. Their attack lacks creativity without these players. Both squads are depleted, but Wolverhampton's defensive absences are more critical as they face a Sunderland side that can counter.

Both teams play defensive styles: Wolverhampton are low-block and corner-heavy at home (43% possession), Sunderland are also defensive and card-heavy away (42% possession). This is a tactical battle of two cautious sides. Possession will be low, with both teams looking to hit on the counter. This typically leads to few goals but potential for set-piece goals. Wolverhampton's corner average (3.22) and Sunderland's (3.72) are middling, but total corners in marker matches average 7.8 (home) and 10.4 (away) – suggesting a combined total around 9-10. Yellow cards are high: Wolverhampton home markers average 4.23, Sunderland away markers average 5.61. Expect a physical, low-scoring match.

Wolverhampton's home markers: vs Chelsea (1-3, xG 1.06-3.44, BC 1-6, corners 3-4), vs Bournemouth (0-2, xG 1.38-1.36, BC 4-2, corners 5-6), vs Brentford (0-2, xG 1.27-1.28, BC 2-4, corners 3-4), vs Crystal Palace (0-2, xG 1.79-1.27, BC 2-2, corners 1-4). In all four, they lost by at least two goals and failed to score in three. They concede plenty of big chances (avg 3.78) and their xG against is high (2.02). Their own xG is moderate (1.32) but they rarely convert. Sunderland's away markers: vs Newcastle (2-1 win, xG 2.44-1.29, BC 3-1, corners 5-9), vs Leeds (1-0 win, xG 0.86-1.15, BC 1-0, corners 2-9), vs West Ham (1-3 loss, xG 0.67-1.52, BC 3-4, corners 3-3), vs Tottenham (1-1 draw, xG 0.44-1.18, BC 0-2, corners 5-3). They create few chances (avg 1.94 BC) but are efficient defensively (1.56 BC against). Their corners away are high (10.39 total) but they concede many corners (6.67). Pattern: Sunderland rely on set pieces and counter-attacks, while Wolverhampton struggle to score at home. The marker data suggests a low-scoring affair with Sunderland having the edge.

Only one H2H in the last 12 months: 2025-10-18 Sunderland 2-0 Wolverhampton (xG 0.83-0.65, corners 2-2, fouls 12-5). Sunderland won comfortably despite lower xG. Both coaches are the same, indicating tactical continuity. That match was tight but Sunderland capitalized on their chances.

Small markets: Wolverhampton home markers average 3.22 corners for, Sunderland away 3.72 – combined 6.94, but total corner average is 7.78 vs 10.39. The bookmaker line for corners is 9.5. Total card average: home 4.23, away 5.61 – combined 4.92, but league baseline is 4.0. Fouls are high (home 23.22, away 26.5). First-half stats: home markers average 1.28 total goals in first half (all away sides scored), away markers average 1.67 (again, opponents scored). Both teams tend to concede early. First-half corners: home 4.17, away 4.83. First-half cards: home 1.67, away 1.06.

Bookmakers favor Sunderland at 2.20 (43.2% fair probability after removing margin). Home win is 3.20 (29.7%), draw 3.50 (27.1%). Under 2.5 is 1.73 (57.8% fair), Over 2.5 is 2.10 (47.6% fair). Significant money has come for Under 2.5 and Away win. Given the hole in motivation for Wolverhampton and their poor form, Sunderland win at 2.20 is slightly above fair (my estimate: 43% vs 43.2% – no value). Under 2.5 at 1.73 is overpriced given market expectation; my estimate is 58% probability (fair odds 1.72) – slight value. BV is borderline.